The problem: 100 000 ₴ that are not needed right now. Inflation is 10 % a year (NBU, October 2026). The rates are the market averages: a deposit at 12.63 %, government bonds at 15.16 %, a currency deposit at 1.07 %, an expected fund return of 8 %. One question: where will that money be in a year, and in five?
After one year
| Option | At the end | In today's money |
|---|---|---|
| Government bonds | 115 160 ₴ | 104 690.90 ₴ |
| Hryvnia deposit | 110 170.50 ₴ | 100 155 ₴ |
| Index fund | 106 160 ₴ | 96 509.09 ₴ |
| Currency deposit | 100 827.01 ₴ | 91 660.91 ₴ |
| Cash at home | 100 000 ₴ | 90 909.09 ₴ |
In nominal terms everything but cash won. In real terms only two did. A deposit at the average rate added 155 ₴ of purchasing power over the year: 110 170.50 ₴ a year from now buys roughly what 100 155 ₴ buys today.
Five years makes the difference visible
| Option | At the end | In today's money | Real rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Government bonds | 202 538.82 ₴ | 125 760.67 ₴ | 4.69 % |
| Hryvnia deposit | 162 303.07 ₴ | 100 777.43 ₴ | 0.16 % |
| Index fund | 136 138.26 ₴ | 84 531.14 ₴ | −3.31 % |
| Currency deposit | 104 204.05 ₴ | 64 702.51 ₴ | −8.34 % |
| Cash at home | 100 000 ₴ | 62 092.13 ₴ | −9.09 % |
The sum on deposit grew by 62 %, its purchasing power by 0.8 %. Which is why "how much will there be at the end" is a poor question and "what will it be worth in today's money" is a good one.
The bar to clear
At 10 % inflation and 23 % tax, a deposit merely draws level with prices at a rate of 12.43 %. The market average is 12.63 % - exactly on the bar, adding nothing. Everything below it is a slow loss, neatly documented.
For a fund, where the tax is charged once on the profit, the bar is almost the same - 12.39 % a year in hryvnias. The expected 8 % is a dollar return, and an honest comparison has to add the depreciation you expect. If the hryvnia weakens by 5 % a year, 8 % in dollars becomes about 13.4 % in hryvnias and the fund clears the bar. If the rate stays put, it does not.
Why bonds lead, and what that costs
The five-year gap between bonds and the deposit is 40 235.75 ₴, and most of it is not the rate but the tax: the state takes 25 120.29 ₴ out of the deposit and nothing out of the bonds (art. 165.1.2 of the Tax Code).
What pays for that:
- A deposit up to 600 000 ₴ is covered by the Deposit Guarantee Fund, and in full during martial law and for three months after. It opens in five minutes in an app.
- Bonds are guaranteed by the state - the same issuer that grants the exemption. The paper has to be bought through a bank, the Diia app or a broker, and the purchase fee eats part of the yield, especially on short maturities. Selling early is possible, but at the market price, and that moves.
- A fund guarantees nothing: 8 % is an expectation, not a rate, and any year can be negative. Over a long horizon, though, it is the one that historically beats both deposits and bonds.
- A currency deposit is a 1 % rate multiplied by a bet on the exchange rate. The table holds that rate still, so the option looks bad; if the hryvnia drops 20 %, it becomes one of the best.
Ten years: the price of doing nothing
| Option | In today's money after 10 years |
|---|---|
| Government bonds | 158 157.46 ₴ |
| Hryvnia deposit | 101 560.91 ₴ |
| Index fund | 72 959.14 ₴ |
| Cash at home | 38 554.32 ₴ |
Cash loses 61 % of its purchasing power - and it is the only row with no issuer risk, no fees and no tax. Ten years on deposit cost 87 852.31 ₴ of tax to end up level in today's money.
How to choose
The term decides more than the rate. Money needed in a year belongs in a deposit or in short bonds, because a fund can be down over any single year. A ten-year horizon is the opposite: short instruments there lose to inflation almost by default.
Then come risk and currency. Everything in hryvnias is a bet that nothing sharp happens to prices or to the exchange rate; everything in dollars is the opposite bet. Splitting into two parts is usually wiser than guessing.
Put your own figures - the sum, the term, your bank's rate and your own inflation forecast - into Where to put your money: every option is recalculated on equal terms, and you will see which of them actually outruns prices in your case.